Insiders send renewed signal of skepticism

After the particularly strong turnover months of November and December, we see a slightly changed data field in January. The insiders held back nobly, only smaller transactions were made. However, this did little to change the general attitude. The insider data still speaks for the continuing skepticism. Buying sentiment looks different.

The figures for January

On the On the buy side, the insiders acted particularly selective. The present 18 transactions only brought together a volume of just over 3.5 million euros. This means that there are still a few stocks that are being bought - but these are an exception. The only positive example was the insider purchase of Beiersdorf AG at a price low of just under one million euros. All other purchased stocks were already known to us from previous months.

The sales side is made up of 20 individual transactions with a volume of just under 15 million euros. However, this was significantly lower than in previous months and even the lowest level since July 2010. Although there was also an overall outflow of capital in January, this was relatively low at just over 10 million. So here, too, restraint prevailed.

Interpretation

For the Insider Analysis the central question is always how the mass of insiders behaves. As you can see from the picture, the distribution in terms of quantity and volume is of particular importance. Here, a clear picture emerges in January as well: The insiders have no share in the currently rising prices on the market.

The overall low turnover nevertheless suggests that insiders remained invested. This time, there were no large capital withdrawals as in the previous two months. Insiders currently appear to be taking a wait-and-see approach. The current upswing is no longer trusted in its very advanced stage. The ongoing profit-taking still speaks for broad skepticism.

Special effects

However, we also observed that the figures were burdened by special effects. For example, insider sales at Pfleiderer and Conergy in particular inflated the sales side. Here we are dealing with two companies that have come under serious pressure despite the upswing. You can already see that from the respective share price charts.

In January, these two companies generated Insider sales totaling around 7.4 million euros and are thus responsible for half of sales. They should consider it worth remembering that not all companies in Germany are doing well. Nor are these two likely to have been the last to run into trouble. So this is also included in the January figures.

What's next?

The January data suggest that insiders are currently keeping a very cautious eye on the market. Renewed buying impulses are hard to imagine in the current market environment. However, as long as the market continues to rise, no one will be discouraged. However, after the insiders had already put quite a few sheep in the dry at the end of 2010, you should be particularly on your guard for the spring of 2011. Something seems to be brewing.